Ukraine Crisis: India’s diplomatic dilemma and the way forward

Amidst global condemnation and cascading new sanctions Russia unleashed airstrikes on cities and military bases of Ukraine while a three side attack formation commenced ground invasion. In this unprecedented scenario Ukraine has implemented martial law in the nation and thousands of lives are at stake. As the air raid sirens are blaring frequently in Kyiv, several countries have scrambled to
protect their own interests.

India, for all given reasons, has its own vested interests on both sides of the border and is minutely monitoring the situation.
To understand India’s position and the diplomatic dilemma, it’s important to go
through the statements made before and after the attack.

Earlier today, in emergency meeting of UNSC, India’s top diplomat at UN expressed regret and said that the situation is in danger of spiraling into a major crisis. Notably, he didn’t
condemned Russian aggression. Even when Russia recognized the independence of separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, India didn’t condemned the step.
Later on, when the Russian fighter crafts strategically bombed Ukraine’s capital and
nearby areas and reportedly eliminated Ukrainian air defense power, Ukraine’s
ambassador to India released a statement requesting PM Modi to intervene. The statement read “I think in this case your prime minister can address Mr. Putin. He can address our president. Many times in history, India played a peacekeeping role. We are asking for your strong voice to stop this war.”

As the day passed by, a build up of India-Russia conversation took the social space
by storm and later in evening the Prime Minister’s office released a statement
summarising the conversation between Modi and Putin. The statement said that
India sensitised it’s concern regarding safety and return of its citizen in Ukraine and appealed for immediate cessation of violence. As per PMO, Russian pres briefed Indian PM on the current situation and India reiterated its long standing conviction that differences between Russia and NATO shall be solved by dialog.

Afterwards, In a press conference, when asked if India will stand by US’ policy on
Russia, President Joe Biden said that the US is in constant communication with India and the outcome is yet to be seen.
Now, after being aware of India’s current stand, digging deep into political, strategic and historical ties with both the nations at war will help us figure out Indian role if the crisis continues.

India & Russia

India has always registered its concerns on expansionist policies. PM Modi has time and again stated that the expansionist ideology is the biggest threat to world’s peace. Having said that, there’s no denial to the fact that Russian ‘special military action’ is nothing but pure expansion approach. An attempt to gain control of strategically important land mass is definitely a bigger driving force to this war than the will of Donetsk and Luhansk. Similarly, current Indian government is very specific about Indian sovereignty and it strictly discourages any foreign intervention in its internal matters. But here, Russian intervention in Donetsk and Luhansk is a
clear breach of Ukrainian sovereignty. Policy wise, both these things push India to take a Pro-Ukrainian stand, but hold on! there’s a lot more to look at. There’s a lot more to balance this ethical dilemma. It’s a proven fact that for all good reasons, emotions come last in diplomatic checklist.
Indo-Russian relationship dates back to Soviet Union days. It’s not hidden that
India’s defence infrastructure has a fair share of Russian firepower. From fighter
jets to tanks, from ammunition to missiles, from submarines to guns; ‘Made in Russia’ is stamped on a big portion of Indian defence hardware. The navy giant ‘INS Vikramaditya’ is of Russian origin, frontline air warrior Su-30 MKI also finds it’s built in Putin’s country. The proposed AK-203 rifles are to be made in association of Russia. Russia has been a long-standing partner in areas ranging from nuclear energy to space expeditions.

Though the Russian share in Indian armament trade has seen a slump in recent past, obviously due to India’s will of diversifying its armory and its growing self-production capacity, it still stands around fifty percent.
Here, the notable point is, even after an evident degradation in geoeconomical
terms and lowering trade volume, Russia has never done any strategic harm to
India. PM Modi is one of only four foreign leaders to have been awarded with ‘the order of St. Andrew’, Russia’s highest decoration and this speaks volumes about the common understanding between these two nations. Also, India will definitely try
to stay relevant amidst the growing China-Russia relationship. Indian approach will directly impact Russian strategy in case of confrontation with China. The strategic, political and economical relationship with Russia is the reason behind India’s highly
balanced approach in the current crisis.

India & Ukraine

India’s biggest concern in Ukraine is it’s 20,000 students and nationals, many of
them live close to the action zone are enrolled in different medical universities of Ukraine. India was one of the first countries to recognise Ukraine as sovereign country and Delhi is home to Ukraine’s first mission in Asia. Ukraine is only second to Russia from USSR group in terms of trade with India. India exports pharmaceuticals, electrical and electronic equipment, plastic, oil seeds, grain, fruits, seeds and chemical products to Ukraine which accounts for 438.3 million Dollars and imports vegetable fats and oils, cleavage products and fertilizers which accounts for 2.1 Billion Dollars. Even though India and Ukraine has maintained healthy relations even since the fall of Soviet Union, there are certain incidents
which raise eyebrows, one to mention is Ukraine’s vote against India after its
nuclear test in Pokhran. All in all, India has no strong reason to go against Ukraine. As of now and with a big number of Indians stuck in parts of Ukraine, India will be last to wish any further escalation in Ukrainian territory.

Other Factors

Now, apart from direct interests, India has multiple reasons to support de-escalation. India’s energy security is a matter of concern as the never before rise in crude oil prices will definitely hamper India’s growth story. In 2021, India imported only 1% of its oil and only 0.2% of its gas from Russia, so the direct supply is not an issue but the uncontrollable growth in prices will kick in. Similarly, if the situation intensifies and the crisis leads to Europe, specifically Germany will curtail gas
imports from Russia and in that case other providers will shift the supply to Europe,
hampering supplies to Asian countries and hence will create a shoot up in gas
prices. If the war like situation prevails and sanctions on Russia intensifies, India will be faced with similar choices on taking defence supplies from Russia. Given all these situations, India’s stand of appealing for de-escalation and regretting the situation without taking names seems justified.

The current crisis has challenged Indian ability to avoid an impact on its economy
and future strategies, without taking sides and this needs careful diplomatic
handling, key to which lies in instant de-escalation.

Report by Ashish Ranjan

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